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Market Indicator: Buffett Indicator

  • Buffett Indicator: (Total U.S Market Cap) / Annualized GDP

  • Historical Average: ~120%

  • When evaluated in terms of standard deviation; above 30% is overvalued, above 60% is strongly overvalued

  • When interest rates are down, stocks tend to go up even during extreme market overvaluation

  • Source: Current Market Valuation

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Market Indicator: P/E Ratio

  • Historical Average: 19.6 X

  •  P/E10 CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings): rather than using the most recent earnings data, the CAPE ratio looks as current Price divided by the average earnings over the prior 10 years.

  •  Source: Current Market Valuation

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Market Sentiment: Bulls vs. Bears

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Foreign Stocks: Y vs. F shares

  • Example: BYD Company Limited traded in Hong Kong as 1211.HK; in the U.S. traded as: BYDDY and BYDDF

  • "Y" Shares: American Depository Receipts (ADR's), they are more liquid, probably lower to trade vs. "F" shares, but possible higher trade cost vs. U.S. listed stocks 

  • "F" Shares: they are less liquid, possibly traded at higher commissions, foreign ordinaries traded in OTC markets. Mostly subject to the foreign country's regulations only as far as information goes and might be harder to trade.

  • Reference Info: Charles Schwab comparison

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​Chinese Stocks: A vs. B shares

  • "A" shares: for Chinese citizens; traded in local currency; main indices are CSI 300 index (SHSZ300) or Shanghai Composite index (SHCOMP). 

  • "B" shares: for foreign investors; traded in foreign currencies (USD, HK dollars, etc.); equities traded on Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges.

  • "H" shares: companies incorporated in China, but listed in Hong Kong and denominated in HK dollars; mainly Hang Seng China Enterprise index (HSCEI).

  • Reference Info: UBS Chine equities 101​​

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ETFs vs. Mutual Funds

  • ETFs: Traded like a stock; don't generate taxable capital gains; taxes become a problem when you sell

  • Funds:​ Traded once a day; actively managed; costs are higher​​

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Value vs. Growth 

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Global Markets

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Private Co. Watchlist

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Public Co. Watchlist

  • Xiaomi (1810.HK & XIACY)

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